N-Step-Ahead Optimal Control of a Compartmental Model of COVID-19

Abstract

This paper uses a compartmental model that accounts for some of the main features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming a control that represents the aggregated intensity of non pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdown in varying degrees and the use of masks and social distancing, this text proposes an N-step-ahead optimal control (NSAOC) method that is easy to calculate and provides a guideline for implementation. The compartmental model is extended to account for vaccination, and the N-step-ahead optimal control is calculated for this case as well. The proposed control is robust to parameter variation in all model parameters, when they are assumed to be normally distributed about nominal values. In addition, the proposed NSAOC is shown to compare favorably with a recently proposed PID-like controller.

This paper uses a compartmental model that accounts for some of the main features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming a control that represents the aggregated intensity of non pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdown in varying degrees and the use of masks and social distancing, this text proposes an N-step-ahead optimal control (NSAOC) method that is easy to calculate and provides a guideline for implementation. The compartmental model is extended to account for vaccination, and the N-step-ahead optimal control is calculated for this case as well. The proposed control is robust to parameter variation in all model parameters, when they are assumed to be normally distributed about nominal values. In addition, the proposed NSAOC is shown to compare favorably with a recently proposed PID-like controller.